With lower than two months to the November 2025 off-cycle governorship election in Anambra State, a brand new threat evaluation report has recognized Ihiala and Aguata native authorities areas as probably the most unstable hotspots.
The report additionally warned that public belief within the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) stays dangerously low.
The report, titled “The Early Warning: Assessing Pre-Election Safety Danger Forward of the 2025 Anambra Off-Cycle Governorship Election”, was carried out by the Kimpact Improvement Initiative (KDI) throughout all 21 LGAs of the state.
The doc, introduced by the chief director of KDI, Bukola Idowu, to stakeholders on Friday in Abuja, painted an image of insecurity, political rivalry, and fragile institutional belief that might undermine the credibility of the ballot.
In line with the report, Ihiala and Aguata stand out as extreme threat LGAs, the place a mix of youth mobilisation, political thuggery, and historic disputes over candidate choice make the areas flashpoints for potential electoral violence.
Different LGAs categorised as excessive threat embrace Awka South, Ogbaru, Onitsha North, Anaocha, Idemili North, Idemili South, Nnewi North, Orumba North, Orumba South, Anambra East, and Dunukofia.
Onitsha South, Njikoka, Nnewi South, and Anambra West have been labeled as moderate-risk zones.
Idowu recalled that in Ihiala, insecurity was so extreme through the 2021 governorship election that INEC was unable to conduct voting on election day, resorting as an alternative to a supplementary ballot.
In Aguata, the birthplace of Governor Charles Soludo, the report cited persistent vote-buying, deep political rivalries, and restricted belief in safety companies as components that heightened the chance of violence.
Past the hotspots, the survey reveals an alarming disaster of confidence in INEC, with practically 71.5 per cent of respondents expressing both little or no or no belief in any respect within the fee’s potential to conduct free and honest elections.
Solely 15.28 per cent of Anambra residents mentioned they’d a substantial amount of belief in INEC, whereas 13.19 per cent indicated some belief.
In line with the doc, majority linked their scepticism to the 2023 normal elections, when glitches within the Consequence Viewing Portal (IReV), delays in consequence transmission, and operational failures raised doubts about electoral transparency.
The report warned that these belief deficits might gas voter apathy and unrest, revealing that Anambra has already recorded a historic decline in turnout, falling to only 10.3 per cent within the 2021 governorship election, regardless of excessive political consciousness .
“Notion issues as a lot as efficiency. In a aggressive surroundings with lively on-line narratives, even remoted failures might be generalised as systemic bias”, it mentioned.
The doc harassed that with out pressing measures to rebuild credibility, operational challenges such because the late arrival of voting supplies, malfunctioning BVAS machines, and opaque collation might set off widespread suspicion, disinformation, and unrest.
Safety companies have been additionally flagged as dealing with a belief disaster, with residents citing unresolved abuses, heavy-handed ways, and opaque auxiliary operations in areas reminiscent of Nnewi and Ogbaru as causes for his or her insecurity.
INEC, in accordance with the report, should prioritise operational fundamentals: well timed logistics, stress-tested BVAS deployment, credible consequence administration, and clear incident reporting.
It additionally beneficial real-time updates on polling preparations and the rapid publication of LGA-level outcomes as trust-building steps, whereas advising safety companies to strengthen neighborhood engagement, undertake clear incident protocols, and deploy adequately skilled personnel in proportion to LGA threat scores.
