By Charles Kumolu, Deputy Editor
Besides a miracle occurs, Nigerians could also be witnessing the final energetic days of the Peoples Democratic Celebration, PDP. Solely a elementary recalibration of the opposition can show in any other case. But, given the nation’s political tradition, the celebration seems all however completed, with only some males nonetheless standing.
For context, the lads are the governors, whose ranks have been depleted by a gale of defections by no means seen in Nigeria’s chequered political historical past.
In lower than three years, Nigerians have witnessed the PDP shrinking from 11 governors as of Might 29, 2023, to eight. The state of affairs, which raised questions on their driving power, additional depleted the ranks of the PDP to an embarrassing stage.
Defiance
Regardless of the sweeping wave that has blown lots of its governors into the ruling camp, a couple of throughout the PDP seem decided to carry their floor.
Because the celebration’s most seen leaders on the state stage, these governors appear resolved to both climate the storm or go down with the ship. Sunday Vanguard believes this stance underscores each their defiance and the magnitude of the disaster confronting the once-dominant opposition.
On the time President Bola got here to energy, the PDP managed 11 states: Oyo, Adamawa, Bauchi, Rivers, Benue, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Taraba, Bayelsa, and Plateau.
However inside months, a mix of political strain, patronage, and opportunism thinned the ranks.
Presently, those that have dumped the celebration, citing what analysts described as egocentric causes embrace Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State, Bayelsa State Governor, Duoye Diri, and Umoh Eno of Akwa Ibom.
Govs
The speedy attrition of PDP governors since 2023 has not been merely a matter of numbers, it indicators a deeper structural disaster throughout the celebration. Governors, historically among the many strongest anchors of any celebration’s federal construction, have grow to be liabilities fairly than stabilisers.
Reasonably than rallying grassroots help, many have opted for self-preservation by way of defection. The message this sends is corrosive: if governors can leap ship, what loyalty stays among the many rank and file? The defection tide thus undermines the PDP’s institutional coherence, weakening its bargaining energy and public credibility forward of the 2027 contests.
One-party
Moreover, this development has knock-on results on the opposition ecosystem extra broadly. If the PDP collapses right into a shadow of itself, then Nigeria’s political stability suggestions dangerously towards single-party dominance. The opportunistic nature of many defections, seemingly pushed by calculations of entry to federal spoils fairly than ideological conviction, additionally undermines the idea of opposition.
It means the ruling celebration features not simply numbers however the look of inevitability, which in flip suppresses contestation, dampens inside renewal within the opposition, and slowly erodes democratic vibrancy.
In the meantime, within the midst of this stand a couple of males, who many argue might both win or perish with the celebration.
Seyi Makinde
If there’s one PDP governor who has proven each resilience and independence, it’s Engineer Seyi Makinde of Oyo State. Extensively considered the celebration’s final stronghold within the South-West, Makinde’s political journey mirrors a story of calculated pragmatism, self-assurance, and deep grassroots enchantment.
Since 2019, Makinde has defied the percentages in a area dominated by APC’s political equipment. At the same time as his fellow Southern PDP leaders like Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Minister, Nyesom Wike and Samuel Ortom wavered, Makinde maintained a cautious stability between cooperation with the ruling authorities and loyalty to his celebration. This strategic dexterity has earned him admiration throughout political divides.
Makinde’s motive for staying in PDP seems much less about ideology and extra about legacy and autonomy. As one of the crucial financially impartial governors in Nigeria, he doesn’t rely closely on federal handouts or political godfathers. His administration’s deal with infrastructure, training, and safety reforms in Oyo has created a performance-based legitimacy that insulates him from strain to defect.
Politically, Makinde appears to be positioning himself as the brand new ethical face of the opposition, pragmatic, youthful, and development-oriented. His frequent requires coverage continuity and inter-party cooperation have made him appear to be a bridge between the previous PDP and the rising multiparty future Nigeria wants.
Observers say that Makinde’s endurance lies in his capacity to talk the language of governance fairly than grievance. Not like a few of his PDP friends who continually commerce blames, Makinde prefers measurable efficiency and monetary self-discipline as his political protection.
Nonetheless, being the lone PDP governor within the South-West comes with huge weight. The regional APC community continually seeks to isolate him politically, particularly forward of 2027. But, his rising nationwide profile, notably his affect amongst technocrats and younger voters, offers him a definite id.
Some insiders say Makinde might ultimately lead a new-centre opposition coalition, ought to the PDP fail to reinvent itself. For now, he stays steadfast, urging his colleagues to rebuild the celebration “from the grassroots up,” fairly than chasing energy by opportunistic defections.
In some ways, Makinde symbolizes what the PDP might have been — disciplined, policy-driven, and people-focused. His survival throughout the celebration might nicely decide whether or not the PDP can retain any severe foothold in southern Nigeria past 2027.
Consequential
Makinde now stands as maybe probably the most consequential determine in what stays of the PDP’s southern flank. His political evolution throughout the celebration has been complicated, without delay rebellious and constant. As one of many influential G5 governors who brazenly opposed Atiku Abubakar in the course of the 2023 basic election, Makinde’s defiance almost fractured the PDP’s marketing campaign construction. But, paradoxically, within the post-election interval, he has emerged as one of many few preserving the celebration from complete collapse within the South.
Regardless of being a member of the G5 governors who didn’t help the celebration in 2023, Makinde has proven unusual steadiness in defending the PDP in opposition to the divisive antics of Nyesom Wike, the previous Rivers governor turned Federal Capital Territory Minister.
Whereas Wike has brazenly fraternised with the APC and tried to fracture the PDP’s base by affect operations in Rivers and past, Makinde has maintained a calibrated loyalty. His refusal to comply with Wike’s footsteps into open defection underscores his understanding of the bigger implications of PDP’s disintegration, not only for opposition politics, however for Nigeria’s broader democratic stability.
Altruistic
Political insiders say Makinde’s determination to carry the road isn’t completely altruistic. There are whispers that he could also be eyeing the PDP presidential ticket in 2027, particularly if the North stays divided between Atiku and different contenders. His political poise, administrative report in Oyo, and skill to retain public goodwill have positioned him in an enviable place throughout the opposition fold.
Nonetheless, some analysts see him not merely as an bold politician however because the South’s strongest hope of preserving the PDP related within the years forward. Whether or not he can construct the cross-regional alliances wanted to attain that continues to be the query, however for now, Makinde stands because the final regular pillar in a crumbling home.
Bala Mohammed
In Bauchi, Governor Bala Mohammed has emerged as probably the most skilled and strategically minded PDP chief within the North. A former senator and FCT minister, Bala is thought for his political pragmatism and deep administrative understanding of the Nigerian system.
He resisted intense strain to defect after 2023, selecting as an alternative to consolidate PDP’s presence within the North-East by efficiency and inclusivity. His infrastructural renewal tasks, particularly in roads, healthcare, and training, have made Bauchi one of many best-governed northern states in recent times.
Bala’s critics accuse him of enjoying either side — sustaining heat ties with the APC-controlled federal authorities whereas preserving the PDP flag aloft in Bauchi. However his defenders say that’s exactly why he stays invaluable: he understands survival politics with out shedding id.
Inside the PDP hierarchy, Bala now performs the position of elder statesman, ceaselessly mediating disputes between Atiku’s loyalists and southern blocs. His calm temperament and political maturity have earned him respect throughout the aisle.
Analysts consider Bala’s continued presence in PDP is not only for symbolism. It’s a part of a long-term strategic calculation to maintain the celebration alive within the North-East and keep bargaining energy forward of 2027. Ought to PDP ever get better, Bala Mohammed’s identify will likely be amongst these credited with stopping its complete collapse.
Ahmadu Fintiri
Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa represents the brand new era of pragmatic northern leaders who mix conventional politics with fashionable governance. His tenacity in the course of the 2023 elections, when he fought off a fierce APC problem led by Senator Aishatu “Binani” Dahiru, earned him nationwide acclaim.
Not like others who left PDP underneath strain, Fintiri doubled down — rebuilding his native alliances and reaffirming the PDP model because the state’s dominant political power. His political endurance is rooted in sturdy youth mobilization, inclusive appointments, and a modest however constant report of improvement.
Fintiri’s determination to remain in PDP is guided by loyalty and conviction {that a} functioning democracy wants stability. He believes opposition events play a vital position in guaranteeing accountability. “It’s simple to affix the profitable aspect,” he reportedly instructed associates, “however management is about standing agency when it issues.”
Fintiri’s model of quiet energy might place him as a future energy dealer within the opposition. With Bala Mohammed because the northern elder and Makinde because the southern reformist, Fintiri completes the trinity of PDP’s final credible governors.
Sunday Vanguard learnt that other than these males, a number of the remaining governors might quickly dump the celebration, a transfer that would additional push the nation towards a one-party state. These nonetheless standing embrace Governor Agbu Kefas of Taraba State, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara, Caleb Muftwang of Plateau State, and Ademola Adeleke of Osun State.
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